Where should livestock graze? Integrated modeling and optimization to guide grazing management in the Cañete basin, Peru

Integrated watershed management allows decision-makers to balance competing objectives, for example agricultural production and protection of water resources. Here, we developed a spatially-explicit approach to support such management in the Cañete watershed, Peru. We modeled the effect of grazing management on three services – livestock production, erosion control, and baseflow provision – and used an optimization routine to simulate landscapes providing the highest level of services. Over the entire watershed, there was a trade-off between livestock productivity and hydrologic services and we identified locations that minimized this trade-off for a given set of preferences. Given the knowledge gaps in ecohydrology and practical constraints not represented in the optimizer, we assessed the robustness of spatial recommendations, i.e. revealing areas most often selected by the optimizer. We conclude with a discussion of the practical decisions involved in using optimization frameworks to inform watershed management programs, and the research needs to better inform the design of such programs

Ferrets exclusively synthesize Neu5Ac and express naturally humanized influenza A virus receptors

Mammals express the sialic acids ​N-acetylneuraminic acid (​Neu5Ac) and ​N-glycolylneuraminic acid (​Neu5Gc) on cell surfaces, where they act as receptors for pathogens, including influenza A virus (IAV). ​Neu5Gc is synthesized from ​Neu5Ac by the enzyme cytidine monophosphate-N-acetylneuraminic acid hydroxylase (CMAH). In humans, this enzyme is inactive and only ​Neu5Ac is produced. Ferrets are susceptible to human-adapted IAV strains and have been the dominant animal model for IAV studies. Here we show that ferrets, like humans, do not synthesize ​Neu5Gc. Genomic analysis reveals an ancient, nine-exon deletion in the ferret CMAH gene that is shared by the Pinnipedia and Musteloidia members of the Carnivora. Interactions between two human strains of IAV with the sialyllactose receptor (sialic acid—α2,6Gal) confirm that the type of terminal sialic acid contributes significantly to IAV receptor specificity. Our results indicate that exclusive expression of ​Neu5Ac contributes to the susceptibility of ferrets to human-adapted IAV strains

Optimizing investments in national-scale forest landscape restoration in Uganda to maximize multiple benefits

Forest loss and degradation globally has resulted in declines in multiple ecosystem services and reduced habitat for biodiversity. Forest landscape restoration offers an opportunity to mitigate these losses, conserve biodiversity, and improve human well-being. As part of the Bonn Challenge, a global effort to restore 350 million hectares of deforested and degraded land by 2030, over 30 countries have recently made commitments to national forest landscape restoration. In order to achieve these goals, decision-makers require information on the potential benefits and costs of forest landscape restoration to efficiently target investments. In response to this need, we developed an approach using a suite of ecosystem service mapping tools and a multi-objective spatial optimization technique that enables decision-makers to estimate the potential benefits and opportunity costs of restoration, visualize tradeoffs associated with meeting multiple objectives, and prioritize where restoration could deliver the greatest benefits.Wedemonstrate the potential of this approach in Uganda, one of the nations committed to the Bonn Challenge. Using maps of the potential benefits and costs of restoration and efficiency frontiers for optimal restoration scenarios, we were able to communicate how ecosystem services benefits vary spatially across the country and how different weights on ecosystem services objectives can affect the allocation of restoration across Uganda. This work provides a generalizable approach to improve investments in forest landscape restoration and illuminates the tradeoffs associated with alternative restoration strategies.UKAid from the UK government through the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s KnowFor program as well as by the Natural Capital Project, a partnership between the University of Minnesota, Stanford University, the World Wildlife Fund, and the Nature Conservancy. MG was supported by the National Research Foundation of South Africa (Grant Number 98889).http://http://iopscience.iop.org1748-9326am2017Plant Scienc

Future Contingents and the Logic of Temporal Omniscience

At least since Aristotle’s famous 'sea-battle' passages in On Interpretation 9, some substantial minority of philosophers has been attracted to the doctrine of the open future--the doctrine that future contingent statements are not true. But, prima facie, such views seem inconsistent with the following intuition: if something has happened, then (looking back) it was the case that it would happen. How can it be that, looking forwards, it isn’t true that there will be a sea battle, while also being true that, looking backwards, it was the case that there would be a sea battle? This tension forms, in large part, what might be called the problem of future contingents. A dominant trend in temporal logic and semantic theorizing about future contingents seeks to validate both intuitions. Theorists in this tradition--including some interpretations of Aristotle, but paradigmatically, Thomason (1970), as well as more recent developments in Belnap, et. al (2001) and MacFarlane (2003, 2014)--have argued that the apparent tension between the intuitions is in fact merely apparent. In short, such theorists seek to maintain both of the following two theses: (i) the open future: Future contingents are not true, and (ii) retro-closure: From the fact that something is true, it follows that it was the case that it would be true. It is well-known that reflection on the problem of future contingents has in many ways been inspired by importantly parallel issues regarding divine foreknowledge and indeterminism. In this paper, we take up this perspective, and ask what accepting both the open future and retro-closure predicts about omniscience. When we theorize about a perfect knower, we are theorizing about what an ideal agent ought to believe. Our contention is that there isn’t an acceptable view of ideally rational belief given the assumptions of the open future and retro-closure, and thus this casts doubt on the conjunction of those assumptions

Optimizing land use decision-making to sustain Brazilian agricultural profits, biodiversity and ecosystem services

AbstractDesigning landscapes that can meet human needs, while maintaining functioning ecosystems, is essential for long-term sustainability. To achieve this goal, we must better understand the trade-offs and thresholds in the provision of ecosystem services and economic returns. To this end, we integrate spatially explicit economic and biophysical models to jointly optimize agricultural profit (sugarcane production and cattle ranching), biodiversity (bird and mammal species), and freshwater quality (nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment retention) in the Brazilian Cerrado. We generate efficiency frontiers to evaluate the economic and environmental trade-offs and map efficient combinations of agricultural land and natural habitat under varying service importance. To assess the potential impact of the Brazilian Forest Code (FC), a federal policy that aims to promote biodiversity and ecosystem services on private lands, we compare the frontiers with optimizations that mimic the habitat requirements in the region. We find significant opportunities to improve both economic and environmental outcomes relative to the current landscape. Substantial trade-offs between biodiversity and water quality exist when land use planning targets a single service, but these trade-offs can be minimized through multi-objective planning. We also detect non-linear profit-ecosystem services relationships that result in land use thresholds that coincide with the FC requirements. Further, we demonstrate that landscape-level planning can greatly improve the performance of the FC relative to traditional farm-level planning. These findings suggest that through joint planning for economic and environmental goals at a landscape-scale, Brazil's agricultural sector can expand production and meet regulatory requirements, while maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem service provision

If an ontologist could speak we couldn't understand him

It is common for contemporary ontologists to claim that they are not concerned with what exists simpliciter, but rather with what exists ’fundamentally’, or what ’really’ exists. I argue that positions of this sort cannot satisfy reasonable constraints concerning the acquisition of language. I assess and dismiss possible responses to this complaint before commenting on the prospects for a metaphysics without bespoke existence claims

Scaling up community-based obesity prevention in Australia: Background and evaluation design of the Health Promoting Communities: Being Active Eating Well initiative

Background : There is only limited evidence available on how best to prevent childhood obesity and community-based interventions hold promise, as several successful interventions have now been published. The Victorian Government has recently funded six disadvantaged communities across Victoria, Australia for three years to promote healthy eating and physical activity for children, families, and adults in a community-based participatory manner. Five of these intervention communities are situated in Primary Care Partnerships and are the subject of this paper. The interventions will comprise a mixture of capacity-building, environmental, and whole-of-community approaches with targeted and population-level interventions. The specific intervention activities will be determined locally within each community through stakeholder and community consultation. Implementation of the interventions will occur through funded positions in primary care and local government. This paper describes the design of the evaluation of the five primary care partnership-based initiatives in the \u27Go for your life\u27 Health Promoting Communities: Being Active Eating Well (HPC:BAEW) initiative.Methods/Design : A mixed method and multi-level evaluation of the HPC:BAEW initiative will capture process, impact and outcome data and involve both local and state-wide evaluators. There will be a combined analysis across the five community intervention projects with outcomes compared to a comparison group using a cross-sectional, quasi-experimental design. The evaluation will capture process, weight status, socio-demographic, obesity-related behavioral and environmental data in intervention and comparison areas. This will be achieved using document analysis, paper-based questionnaires, interviews and direct measures of weight, height and waist circumference from participants (children, adolescents and adults).Discussion : This study will add significant evidence on how to prevent obesity at a population level in disadvantaged and ethnically diverse communities. The outcomes will have direct influence on policy and practice and guide the development and implementation of future obesity prevention efforts in Australia and internationally.<br /

Evaluating the Benefits of Aphasia Intervention Delivered in Virtual Reality: Results of a Quasi-Randomised Study

Introduction This study evaluated an intervention for people with aphasia delivered in a novel virtual reality platform called EVA Park. EVA Park contains a number of functional and fantastic locations and allows for interactive communication between multiple users. Twenty people with aphasia had 5 weeks’ intervention, during which they received daily language stimulation sessions in EVA Park from a support worker. The study employed a quasi randomised design, which compared a group that received immediate intervention with a waitlist control group. Outcome measures explored the effects of intervention on communication and language skills, communicative confidence and feelings of social isolation. Compliance with the intervention was also explored through attrition and usage data. Results There was excellent compliance with the intervention, with no participants lost to follow up and most (18/20) receiving at least 88% of the intended treatment dose. Intervention brought about significant gains on a measure of functional communication. Gains were achieved by both groups of participants, once intervention was received, and were well maintained. Changes on the measures of communicative confidence and feelings of social isolation were not achieved. Results are discussed with reference to previous aphasia therapy findings

Low back pain in 17 year olds has substantial impact and represents an important public health disorder: a cross-sectional study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Prevalence of low back pain (LBP) rises rapidly during adolescence, reaching adult levels by the age of 18. It has been suggested that adolescent LBP is benign with minimal impact, despite limited evidence.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of LBP and the influence of chronicity, gender and presence of other spinal pain comorbidities at age 17. Subjects (n = 1283) were categorised according to experiencing current and chronic LBP, gender and presence of other areas of spinal pain. LBP impact was ascertained via questions regarding seeking professional assistance, using medication, missing school/work, limited normal or recreational physical activity and health related quality of life (HRQOL).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>12.3% of participants reported current but not chronic LBP, while 19.9% reported current chronic LBP. LBP was more commonly reported by females than males. Other spinal pain comorbidities were common in the LBP groups. Impact was greater in subjects with chronic LBP, in females and in those with other spinal pain comorbidities.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>LBP, and particularly chronic LBP, has a significant negative impact at 17 years. It is commonly associated with care seeking, medication use, school absenteeism, and reduced HRQOL. These findings support that adolescent LBP is an important public health issue that requires attention.</p